NASCAR Chase Tracker: Ryan Blaney Clinches; 13 Spots Remain

NASCAR has a new playoff system in 2026. It’s back to the Chase.

Instead of win-and-in, it’s the top-16 drivers in the regular-season standings that will make the 10-race Chase, which will be a mini-season of its own with no eliminations. 

The 16 drivers will have their points reset for the start of the final 10-race stretch with the regular-season champion at 2,100 points, second place at 2,075, third place at 2,065, fourth place at 2,060 and so on by five-point increments with 16th reset to 2,000.

Five races remain in the regular season: Indianapolis, Iowa, Richmond, New Hampshire and Daytona.

So who is in and who is out? 

Here’s a look:

Clinched

Three drivers have clinched spots in the field of 16:

— Denny Hamlin: The Joe Gibbs Racing driver clinched a spot after Atlanta with six races remaining. He has a 24-point edge on Tyler Reddick in the battle for the regular-season title.

— Tyler Reddick: The 23XI driver also clinched a spot after Atlanta with six races remaining. His five wins this year lead the series.

— Ryan Blaney: The Team Penske driver, who has two victories and a series-best 15 top-10s this year, clinched a spot after North Wilkesboro.

In Good Shape

There are nine drivers who are 84 points or more above the cutline, and the last on that list (William Byron) would have to lose an average of 16 points a race to fall out. At North Wilkesboro, only two top-16 drivers lost more than 16 points to the cutoff.

— Ty Gibbs (+246): The JGR driver earned his first career Cup victory this year and has nine top fives. Four DNFs are the only thing holding him back in the standings.

— Chase Elliott (+172): The Hendrick driver has enjoyed his best start to a season with two victories already. He would like a little more consistency.

— Kyle Larson (+154): The Hendrick Motorsports driver and defending series champion leads all drivers with 169 stage points this year.

— Carson Hocevar (+136): The Spire driver has a win this year along with five top fives, eight top 10s and no DNFs. A pure example of why he should feel relatively safe in this spot — he finished 22nd a few ago at Chicagoland with no stage points and still only lost three points to the cutoff.

— Chase Briscoe (+125): The JGR driver gained 52 points on the cutline with his win at Chicagoland a couple of weeks ago and that put him in the feeling safe category rather than on the bubble. He finished pretty much last at Atlanta last week and still has a decent cushion and then he gained another 21 points on the cutoff after North Wilkesboro.

— Chris Buescher (+123): The RFK Racing driver has just one stage win this year but still has had consistent finishes.

— Christopher Bell (+112): Despite a 19th-place finish at North Wilkesboro, Bell lost just one point on the cutoff. The previous few weeks helped tremendously.

— Daniel Suárez (+96): The Spire Motorsports driver might be the biggest surprise of the season. A ninth-place finish at North Wilkesboro should put him in a position where he won’t get caught by anyone outside the bubble.

— William Byron (+84): The Hendrick driver has had an uncharacteristically inconsistent season and still seeks his first win. The frustration at Atlanta was evidence that the pressure could be getting to this team, but even a 12th on a bad day at North Wilkesboro will be good enough to make the Chase.

On The Bubble

One or two good or bad races could change who is in and who is out, especially if any drivers below the bubble win a race or two. With 76 points being the most available in a race, I’d say right now any driver 80 points above or below is on the bubble. 

— Bubba Wallace (+69): The 23XI driver had a wild last seven races with finishes of third, 21st, second, 22nd, sixth, 29th and sixth. One more strong run over the final five and combined with avoiding a string of horrible finishes should keep him safe.

— Shane van Gisbergen (+54): The Trackhouse Racing driver won at Sonoma last month to go from five points below the cut to 36 points ahead. But maybe a bigger surprise was a fifth-place finish at North Wilkesboro that added 23 points to his cushion and he should make the Chase with just average finishes the rest of the way.

— Joey Logano (+49): How much does a win mean? The Team Penske driver, a three-time Cup champion, went from eight points below the cutline to 49 points above with his victory at North Wilkesboro.

— Austin Cindric (+33): The Team Penske driver likely expected to not be on the bubble. His fate likely isn’t determined as much as what he does versus those below him. If they win like Logano did last week, Cindric could find himself out of luck.

— Erik Jones (-33): The Legacy Motor Club driver lost 41 points to the cutline as he finished 21st and Joey Logano won, earning 73 points compared to 16 points for Jones at North Wilkesboro. Now Jones is going to need some top-10s to get back above the cutoff. 

— Ryan Preece (-48): The RFK driver is a fighter and likely has a chip on his shoulder after a 25-point penalty earlier this year for intentionally wrecking Ty Gibbs. A 10th-place finish at North Wilkesboro was solid but the Logano win put a damper on that finish as Preece found himself going from 33 points below the cutline to 48.

— Brad Keselowski (-58): The RFK driver, the 2012 Cup champion, was up 55 points on the cutline eight races ago. He could rally quickly, but he’s going to have to get going.

Little Or No Chance 

No one has been eliminated from contention yet, but these 15 drivers appear too far back to have even a remote chance to rally. A win might put them back into contention. Might.

— Ross Chastain (-83): The Trackhouse driver had back-to-back top 10s entering Sonoma, but four finishes outside the top 10 have made this hill now too big to climb unless he can win.

— Michael McDowell (-83): The Spire Motorsports driver didn’t take enough advantage of the road-course races. Like Chastain, he has virtually no chance without a win.

–AJ Allmendinger (-98): The Kaulig Racing driver has been within striking range of the Chase but back-to-back 37th-place finishes have ended his hopes.

— Todd Gilliland (-111): The FRM driver has been just a little too inconsistent this year, but he’s still alive in the in-season tournament and is going for $1 million this weekend. All he has to do is finish better than Ryan Blaney at the Brickyard.

— Zane Smith (-124): His season has gone a little south the last few weeks. The focus now is to get better to make a playoff run in 2027.

— Riley Herbst (-126): The 23XI driver lost 26 points to the cutline at Sonoma and then gained 21 points with a 10th at Chicagoland. And then lost 33 points with a 35th at Atlanta and then lost 30 at North Wilkesboro.

— John Hunter Nemechek (-145): The Legacy driver could ride the wave of improvement in the Legacy cars, but it is now too tall of a task to make the Chase.

— Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-148): His chances have slipped away — he lost 21 points to the cutline at Atlanta and then 46 at North Wilkesboro.

— Austin Dillon (-154): The Richard Childress Racing driver will be a favorite at Richmond and could win at Daytona. But even a win or two won’t be enough.

— Alex Bowman (-203): The Hendrick driver missed four races because of vertigo earlier this year. He has three top-five finishes and just one additional top-10 finish.

— Ty Dillon (-236): The Kaulig driver still seeks his first top 10 of the season.

— Noah Gragson (-242): The FRM driver has shown speed at times, but the finishes aren’t there.

— Cole Custer (-249): The Haas Factory Team driver still seeks his first top 10.

— Josh Berry (-261): The Wood Brothers driver already knows he won’t be back next season, and it could be a tough last few months of 2026.

— Connor Zilisch (-282): The Trackhouse rookie has had a miserable season, having failed to finish seven of the 21 races.

— Cody Ware (-318): The Rick Ware Racing driver also seeks his first top 10 of the year.

O’Reilly Series: 

Three races remain in the regular season and 12 will advance. Clinched: Justin Allgaier, Jesse Love.

Truck Series:

Three races remain in the regular season and 10 advance. Clinched: Layne Riggs, Kaden Honeycutt.